8.1 The Necessity of International Cooperation

That the hazard posed by NEO's is a problem for all humankind hardly needs repeating. The likelihood of a particular spot being the target of an impact is independent of its geographic position, so that we are all equally at risk. Further, each person on the face of the planet would be severely affected by a large impact, as discussed in Chapter 2.

The problem is thus international in scope; it is also international in solution. To obtain the spatial and temporal coverage of the sky that is required by the search program outlined in Chapter 7, a wide geographical coverage of optical observatory sites is essential. Even if these sites were limited to six, still at least five countries would likely be involved directly as telescope hosts. However, the number of nations actually involved would be larger than this. If Australia were one site then most likely the Anglo-Australian Observatory would be the organization acting as host, implying British involvement. Similarly a site in India, where a Spacewatch-type instrument is currently being developed, might involve a continuation of direct U.S. collaboration. Some of the best observatory sites in the southern hemisphere are in Chile, and if plans go ahead for the development of a large southern radar in Brazil, again the number of countries increases. The need for international cooperation is obvious, and rapid and efficient international communication through a central agency would be a requirement.

8.2 Current International Efforts

The independent character of the scientific endeavor as well as limited funding resources has resulted in a current program to find and track NEOs that is quite fragmentary. Generally it has been possible, in recent years, for discoveries made by one team to be followed up by other observers, but this has not always been the case, allowing some newly-discovered NEOs to be lost. For the program planned here this must not be allowed to occur, emphasizing the need for an international effort with close cooperation and priorities to be set by a central organization. The present level of our knowledge of NEO's has only been possible because of the services of the staff of the Central Bureau for Astronomical Telegrams and the Minor Planet Center (Cambridge, Massachussetts) who coordinate the analysis of observations of NEO's and make every effort to ensure that sufficient coverage occurs. A continuation of such a service on a larger scale will be necessary if the proposed program is to be brought to fruition.

There have in the past been some efforts made at formally organizing a search program on an international scale, quite apart from the informal links and communications made possible by personal contacts. The most prominent of these organizations has been INAS, the International Near-Earth Asteroid Survey, coordinated by E.F. Helin (Helin and Dunbar, 1984, 1990). INAS has resulted in increased cooperation between observatories in various countries, and hence an increase in the discovery rates. Apart from the U.S., scientists from the following countries have been involved in INAS: France, Italy, Denmark, Sweden, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia, Germany, China, Japan, Russia, Ukraine, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand.

The major thrust of INAS has been to coordinate the efforts of the large wide-field photographic instruments with regard to temporal and sky coverage. An immediate expansion of this effort can increase the current discovery rate, thus providing valuable information on the true statistical nature of the NEO population and associated impact hazards before the full network of survey telescopes becomes operational. Such a program will also serve as a training ground for new personnel and provide valuable experience with improved international communication and coordination.

A Spacewatch-type telescope is currently under development in India with the joint support of the U.S. Smithsonian Institution and the Government of India. Another international effort is being proposed by the Institute for Theoretical Astronomy in St. Petersberg, Russia, under the direction of A.G. Sokolsky. This group organized an international conference The Asteroid Hazard in October 1991, which endorsed the idea that NEOs "represent a potential hazard for all human civilization and create a real threat of regional catastrophes" and noted "the necessity of coordinated international efforts on the problem of the asteroid hazard." This group has asked the Russian Academy of Science to support the formation of an International Institute on the Problem of the Asteroid Hazard under the of the International Center for Scientific Culture -- World Laboratory, and they propose to coordinate asteroid search and follow-up observations in central and eastern Europe.

8.3 Funding Arrangements

If this international survey program is to succeed, it must be arranged on an inter-governmental level. To ensure stability of operations, the NEO survey program needs to be run by international agreement, with reliable funding committed for the full duration of the program by each nation involved.

There are good reasons for the funding to be expected to be derived from all nations directly involved in the program. First, most countries usually want to provide for their own defense rather than to rely upon another or others to do this for them, so we may anticipate that nations in the world-wide community will wish to each play their own part in defending the planet. Second, although this program is large compared with present NEO search efforts, in fact it would be of quite a small overall budget. Thus it is possible for nations to make a significant contribution with little expense whereas it would not be possible for them to buy into a large space project, or even the construction of a ground-based ten-meter-class astronomical telescope. For example, there is a small group in Uruguay who study dynamical aspects of NEO's, and they could provide an essential service to the program; or the telescopes available for follow-up work in New Zealand or Romania could be utilized, and thus those nations gain prestige on the international scene at little expense. Involvement in space programs (which this program is, in essence) is generally viewed favorably by the populace of most countries. Third, this program may be a significant technology driver, so that money spent on the investigation and development of new technologies can be viewed as an investment rather than an expenditure.

With the encouragement of the United States as prime mover, the funding for national sectors of the overall international search program should be attainable locally. For example, Australia and the United Kingdom, through their joint observatory in Australia, could immediately boost the current discovery rate to about 100 per year using existing equipment and technology given supplementary funding from those countries of the order of $ 0.25 million per year, although we would anticipate that this effort would be superseded by the introduction of CCD detectors within five years. Photographic searches currently being carried out in the United States might require a similar boost in funds, with a concomitant boost in discovery rate resulting, and the Spacewatch effort could also be significantly expanded by approval for the upgrade to 1.8-m aperture and funding to run the camera on more than eighteen nights per month.

8.4 International Sanction

The astronomical program outlined in this report already has the support of various international bodies. There is a burgeoning awareness in the astronomical community that the NEO impact hazard is a topic that requires attention for reasons other than altruistic scientific pursuit.
At the 1991 General Assembly of the International Astronomical Union held 1 August in Buenos Aires, Argentina, the following resolution was passed:

The XXIst General Assembly of the International Astronomical Union,

Considering that various studies have shown that the Earth is subject to occasional impacts by minor bodies in the solar system, sometimes with catastrophic results, and

Noting that there is well-founded evidence that only a very small fraction of NEO's (natural Near-Earth Objects: minor planets, comets and fragments thereof) has actually been discovered and have well-determined orbits,

Affirms the importance of expanding and sustaining scientific programmes for the discovery, continued surveillance and in-depth physical and theoretical study of potentially hazardous objects, and

Resolves to establish an ad hoc Joint Working Group on NEOs, with the participation of Commissions 4, 7, 9, 15, 16, 20, 21 and 22, to:

• Assess and quantify the potential threat, in close interaction with other specialists in these fields
• Stimulate the pooling of all appropriate resources in support of relevant national and international programmes;
• Act as an international focal point and contribute to the scientific evaluation; and
• Report back to the XXIInd General Assembly of the IAU in 1994 for possible further action.

The Working Group, to be convened by A. Carusi of Italy, comprises the following scientists:

A. Bazilevski (USSR)
A. Carusi (Italy)
B. Gustafson (Sweden)
A. Harris (USA)
Y. Kozai (Japan)
G. Lelievre (France)
A. Levasseur-Regourd (France)
B. Marsden (USA)
D. Morrison (USA)
A. Milani (Italy)
K. Seidelman (USA)
G. Shoemaker (USA)
A. Sokolsky (USSR)
D. Steel (Australia/UK)
J. Stohl (Czechoslovakia)
Tong Fu (China)

This Working Group was selected not only on the basis of the geographical spread of persons active in the general area, but also in terms of expertise in distinct areas of the necessary program (e.g. celestial mechanics, generation of ephemerides, physical nature of NEO's, dynamics of same, relationship to smaller meteoroids and interplanetary dust). Five of these 16 individuals are also members of the NASA International NEO Detection workshop, ensuring appropriate continuity of effort.

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